By Landon Silinsky
The PGA TOUR takes a break from California and will head to Scottsdale, Arizona this week for the WM Phoenix Open. TPC Scottsdale will be the host course, and measures as a 7,261-yard par 71 with Poa greens.
The field will again be headlined by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who made his debut last week at Pebble Beach, where he would finish T9. Some other big names joining Scheffler this week will be Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama and Sam Burns.
Below I have outlined my two favorite bets for the week.
Back-to-back poor performances at the AMEX and Farmers Insurance Open, combined with the threat of Scottie Scheffler in the field this week have sent Kitayama’s odds plummeting this week, as he’s now sitting a very palatable 60/1. Despite only winning once on the PGA TOUR in his career, this number feels way too high for a golfer of Kitayama’s caliber.
He ranks second in this field in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Ball-Striking over his past 24 rounds, trailing only Scheffler. Kitayama also sits fourth in Total Strokes Gained in that same time frame, behind Scheffler, Justin Thomas and Lucas Glover.
The UNLV product had a really nice stretch to close out the 2024 season, posting top-nine finishes in three of his final five starts. His history at TPC Scottsdale is also pretty elite, as in just two starts he’s posted a T23 and T8, the latter of which came last year. As we have seen in the past, course history is pretty sticky at this tournament, so we can expect Kitayama to again improve on his finishing position this week.
TPC Scottsdale, while definitely scoreable, still presents a bit of a test for golfers, and we should expect the winning score to sit between 17-to-20 under par this week. Kitayama’s lone win came at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2023, which is the ultimate tee-to-green test. The WMPO is not quite as difficult, but it’s enough to where Kitayama’s elite ball-striking can separate him from the field. He’s also shown in his career to do his best work Poa greens, which he will see this week.
Everything is setting up well for Kitayama in this spot, who is almost an auto click at this price.
Novak has been knocking on the door recently, finishing runner-up at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship back in November, before posting a solo third at the Farmers Insurance Open and T13 at Pebble Beach to begin 2025. Novak is one of the more well-rounded golfers in this field, sitting 41st or better in all four of the major Strokes Gained categories over his past 48 rounds.
If you take a more zoomed in view, Novak sits fifth in this field in Total Strokes gained to begin 2025. This has largely been due to his short game, where he’s gained 3.97 and 3.75 strokes with his flat stick over his past two starts, while gaining 1.37 or more strokes around-the-green in both those events as well.
Novak took Harris English to the limit at Torrey Pines two weeks ago, while he’s also a former winner on the Korn Ferry Tour. Just for good measure, he finished T8 at this very event last year in his debut.
Novak definitely has the chops to get over the finish line, and at 80/1 I am more than willing to find out if this is the week.
